Monday, April 21, 2014

The Real ZET Whale

Zetacoin


Foreward:

I have stressed a dozen times over, the only thing that will allow an alt to truly sustain is actual ecommerce

adoption. At the rate that technical advancements are occurring in the cryptocurrency

market you cannot rely on innovations displayed in deflation schemes or a wide array of encryption

methods. It doesn’t matter if there are only 42 42 coins, the coin will die in the long run as it has no

chance of real life utilization. All that really matters beyond the initial hype phase is how much fiat is

being exchanged for that alt. That’s all that matters.

Bitcoin is about to experience its 4th bubble which can be referred to in the future as the “ecommerce/

retail” bubble. From Square to Zynga, large organizations are endorsing and conducting

business at a rate never before seen. The general tone of the sheep media has gone from cynical and

completely distorted to informative and descriptive. With the recent IRS ruling BTC has received a

legitimate status and will now be the target of heavy capital/vc investment. Visa/Paypal/Western Union

are the next targets, no more transaction fees or waiting times with BTC – it will change how most of the

world perceives currency. Bitcoin’s dip is not only because of China bs FUD news but also because of the

massive increase in SHA-256 ASIC mining advancements and technology that drove the amt of mined

BTC far beyond what buying power could handle in this market.

The IRS ruling will obviously translate into something milder as congress craps up some legislation,

however will the system incorporate this stringent procedure with the entire alt market or will there be

some kind of cut off or barriers to entry/acceptance? May most not even care enough to go through the

work and hassle of consistently reporting capital gains on shit coins? I do not see a bright future for over

60%+ of this alt market.

Everyone is titled to their own opinions, this is mine. I am open to hearing other’s opinions and nothing

would make me happier than to be proven wrong as it’s not every day that I have the opportunity to

learn something new.

I am writing this thesis because I’ve found 100% confirmed proof for an altcoin that has assured ecommerce

adoption with one of the biggest cellular MNC’s on this planet. This alt is currently hovering

around $.02. With this coin’s design specifications, it can easily be above at a $1 in the 3m short term.

ZET:

This coin launched back in Aug 2013 and was not very well known until its massive rise up in Dec 2013.

ZET has always had a marketing focus towards Africa which is the first green signal that this coin is on

the right track. Many countries in Africa experience hyperinflation that results in extreme trade

instability; it won’t be long before countries begin to issue crypto currencies themselves. This may begin

with those countries that have under $100 mil GDP/year.

Source:Wikipedia.org/wiki/safaricom

The treasury of Kenya owns another 35% of Safaricom and the rest of the stake is issued to a public IPO.

So you can pretty much gauge the magnitude of the-commerce potential in this scenario.

M-Pesa:

M-Pesa is a mobile-phone payment processor as well as microfinance service that was initially created

by Safaricom. M-Pesa is considered one of the most innovative mobile payment processors in the world

and most likely the most advanced one yet – it allows users to withdraw, deposit and transfer using their

national ID/passport.

This graph is pretty supportive of M-Pesa’s title as the “best mobile phone payment processor” in the

world. Its no. of transactions in comparison to Bitcoin’s is staggering (however one must remember this

chart does not represent volume).

Source: http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/one-third-of-kenyans-now-have-a-bitcoin-wallet

So now after reading all of this you may ask why would M-Pesa want to integrate itself with a new

altcoin when it is already integrated with Bitcoin which is currently the most reputable and established

alt alt out there. The answer is all in centralization; Vodafone was simply not early enough in the BTC

game. So apart from the speed of the coin, the focus of the community, marketing etc..the predominant

reason for why ZET can be found in its deflation scheme.

ZET Supply:

160 MIL to be mined in the first year + 1 mil yearly inflation (to pay miners as fee for providing hashes)

This 160 MIL in the first year is one of the most intriguing features of this coin. I calculated the forumula

for max daily miner payout:

2880 * (1000 * (.5^x(month after launch)) = max output per day

 2880 is blocks per day

 1000 is initial block reward

 Block reward halves every month – coin launched in Aug 2013

That means at this point (4/12/2014) – the daily miner payout is:

2880 * ( 1000 * (.5^8) = 11250

At the current price of 5400 SATs or .000054

That is = 11250 * .000054

= .6 BTC of daily miner output vol at this point of time

However the coin was already mined fully and is now over its cap of 160 mill, it was mined extremely

quickly and that is very important to remember because you can realize that the initial period of

hyperinflation resulted in possibly the lowest of lows we will see on this coin.

Now you can see why this deflation scheme is extremely intriguing,it’s as if all of the coin was rewarded

to only the early entrants – rapid distribution that would give no power to miners after approx. 5-6 mo.

At the price of 5400 SATs that ZET is you can imagine how easy it would be for a whale to accumulate a

large amt of ZET (less than 5 mill $ market) which would be in reality negligible for one of the largest

cellular MNCs.

I am not even going to go into whether they possibly mined it or not.

In order for M-Pesa to adopt an alt and extensively use it for domestic currency exchange it would have

to hold a very large amt of that alt – the same way a forex service would hold large quantities of

different currencies.

Now you are about to see irrefutable proof of M-Pesa’s accumulation of ZET.

*Remember the ‘Thunderclap’ I’ve mentioned on the chart, that will come into play a bit later.

Whale Wallet:

This whale wallet address was brought up by concerned community members on twitter and I initially

speculated that it was a whale wallet that accumulated large amts of ZET because the whale saw large

amts of potential in holding for the future because of the M-Pesa deal. And then through discussion it

became obvious that this was actually M-Pesa’s wallet itself. The wallet had received a total of 53

Million ZET – out of a first year supply of 160 MIL that is ridiculous, the boys at Vodafaone/ZET Devs

didn’t really understand the transparent concept of this “decentralized” system – they probably just

look at it at as a fiat currency issued by a central bank now 

ZET marketcap is $3.7 mil (4/12/2014) at the total amt of ZET that this whale wallet has received is equal

to $1.28 mil. So at the moment it is confirmed that they currently are or were in possession of 36% of

the total ZET market share. Lol.

You can see from above that the first deposits started being made into this wallet from the end of Jan.

This is a couple of weeks after M-Pesa’s utilization of ZET was confirmed by the thunderclap (will be

revealed at the end) and you can see how the buys are all microbuys of exactly 50,000 ZET ea.

Vodafone most likely employed bots to make these purchases and the bots used a low denomination of

ZET in consistently over several months in order to slowly accumulate positions without driving the price

up in order to achieve max capital gains.

The last 10 transactions that the wallet made were outgoing transactions totaling up to 15.7 mil ZET

reducing the wallets balance to 37 mil ZET. The latest withdrawal was on 4/7/2014. I can only speculate

that these withdrawals were made in preparation for release of ZET/KES market or maybe for the

purposes of beta testing.

So now we can safely conclude that we know that M-Pesa has a very large amount of ZET – a minimum

of 20% of the entire market share. What comes next?

Recent price trend:

The news of the M-Pesa takeover has been known by many individuals for months – however news

information without official public release will not sustain without consensus assurance. As Safaricom is

a publicly traded company all of the people who have seen real documentation has probably bit their

tongue except (till they get on their freenodes).

The price naturally declined along with inflation + suppression in order to accumulate. The market has

been bearish until recently when rumors/hype began and the price skyrocketed after a lot of people in

the community went extremely bullish with an absolute assurance of ZET’s imminent success. However,

I would say most have been skeptical and weary – I do not blame them – it is not that easy to find solid

evidence.

In plain sight:

Someone in the twitter community posted a link to a ZET thunderclap executed back in early Jan 2014.

After I looked into it I was in awe, here was near empirical evidence of a takeover.

“In Africa, Asia, and Latin America Android smartphones are widely used”…. Vodafone’s global market

share does not have to be exaggerated

Source: 2013 Vodafone Investor’s fact sheet

And what does that link on the thunderclap lead to?

M-Pesa has the Kipochi mobile Bitcoin client to use – but what does it have for ZET? Above you can see

the social outreach campaign for the dev of the ZET android app.

So why hasn’t the price reacted and gone berserk by now? Well like I mentioned before there have been

no official press releases so far – however the clues have been everywhere.

Above are the thunderclap stats, these are abysmal. Few cared about ZET in the past few months – few

realized. No one really picked up the clues – however the partnership (takeover) has always been hinted

at.

How soon may this happen?

I do not have any definitive confirmed date however I would say that a buy around 4500 – 6000 SATs at

this point of time would be reasonable – no price decline from distribution mechanics to worry about,

extremely bullish market. I would say get in ASAP.

Implications on Price:

Currently ZET at roughly $0.02 is extremely undervalued for what is about to happen. Extremely

undervalued.

There will be international press coverage, non stop speculation – and everyone already knows the

current power of the twit ZET hype (at least among those who are 100% sure). The price right now is

only hovering around $0.02 because of uncertainty. That uncertainty could be lifted in a flash –

something as simple as this document going viral could cause the entire price reversal. In the near future

(next few days – week) – there will be a simple statement by Zeta or Safaricom – and when that

happens the panic buys will begin. Then comes Forbes, Yahoo, CNN etc.

We have seen the price run up of a bunch of coins from the value of a couple of cents.

As I can’t give a proper prediction of what the price could tip off at – the two charts above may show

you that there are no resolute limits when it comes to even low denomination run ups. The ZET run up

will be massive, and there will be an uptrend in the long term.

Important to remember that Safaricom’s ZET holdings will be dispersed for domestic fiat – and a lot of it.

2 cents is nothing when coins like LTC (with similar supply vol) have gone way above $5.

The market force behind ZET will be huge, this coin will soar, it is a buy.



source: http://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/232ejm/mpesa_and_zetacoin/



The Real ZET Whale

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